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The addition of Monte Carlo simulation to the Plexigrid Tatari platform adds powerful new capabilities to strengthen grid management and planning of electricity grids.

Plexigrid have developed Monte Carlo scenario simulations providing more accurate forecasts of future loads in distribution grids compared to traditional methods. The release of the Monte Carlo simulation functionality was announced at the CIGRE conference in Paris, France, on August 29th, 2022.

The integration of Monte Carlo simulations to Plexigrids Tatari platform allows grid operators to simulate how power systems will behave under many different possible conditions and provides detailed predictions of the risk of grids being overloaded.

Grid planning becomes more efficient and investment decisions more accurate if you can model your network and use the Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. This way connection of renewables to the grid can be increased and unnecessary grid investments can be avoided,” said Alberto Mendez, CEO at Plexigrid.

Power generated from distributed renewable sources is unpredictable and, as a result, forecasting grid loads is that much more difficult. The use of probabilistic methods like Monte Carlo analysis is a powerful solution to manage these uncertainties in modern power systems.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says Monte Carlo assessments are superior to the traditional approach of reserve margins, particularly as more power is generated from variable renewable sources and charging of electrified transportation is growing.

The incorporation of the Monte Carlo probabilistic model into Plexigrids Tatari platform follows a global trend to improve assessments of power system capacity and ensure security of supply during peak hours while allowing for growth of renewables technology. Tatari is built on data analytics software, which allows it to easily provide insights from data across the grid, develop business critical KPIs and strong support for investment decisions. The addition of the Monte Carlo simulation model to the platform not only adds a tool that facilitates better predictions, but also aligns with market standards and European regulatory frameworks.

Australia, Belgium, and France are already implementing the Monte Carlo methodology to assess and forecast the performance of their transmission grids and more countries and regions are looking for “more sophisticated approaches to adequacy assessment, and in particular to probabilistic Monte Carlo assessments,” says the IEA.

The complexity of electricity grid planning is growing also for distribution grids along with the decarbonization of the energy systems. Approaches such as the Monte Carlo probabilistic model are ways of coping with the increasing number of unknowns and variations challenging traditional methods. By tapping into the Monte Carlo approach, Plexigrid can generate more advanced and extensive scenarios that incorporate more unknowns and facilitate better medium- long-term grid planning.

For mass penetration studies, a very large number of load flow simulations are performed by the digital twin module. The Plexigrid platform allows a random distribution of selected assets, like charging infrastructure or solar panels, and simulate various degrees of mass deployments to obtain the probability of overload, overcurrent, and over/under voltage constraint violations at different points in the network,” explained Alberto Mendez.